Author: cryptoHowe.eth Source: X, @weihaoming
This is the first large-scale event I participated in in China this year, and it is also the first time I write this essay from the perspective of VC. Now let me explain why I summarized my thoughts on this conference into three Ponzi haha. At the same time, I have to state that this article only represents my personal opinion, NFA.
I.Industry
1. VC is one of the weather vanes for everyone to judge the track
Whenever I talk to people and mention that I am a researcher in VC, everyone will ask the same question: Which tracks do you think are promising recently?
This actually indirectly shows that everyone's views on VC are in a relatively important position. They will use the views of major VCs as one of the criteria for judging whether their own views are correct. After all, this is a relatively simple truth: where hot money is, there is the mainstream market. Even if there is sector rotation, it is just the inflow and outflow between different funds.
2. The Bitcoin ecosystem is still in chaos
The Bitcoin ecosystem is undeniably one of the hottest tracks at present, but for the current development of the Bitcoin ecosystem, I prefer to compare it to the chaotic state at the beginning of Pangu's creation of the world.
One is that the current entire Bitcoin ecosystem is mainly based on various asset protocols, and there are still few projects with real practical applications. Most of what everyone is talking about now is still narrative, narrative, and narrative.
The second is the competition of BTC L2, another mainstream narrative, which is in the stage of fighting each other among major projects. Among them, we can see a very interesting phenomenon. The development of BTC L2 project is divided into two factions. One faction is to do traffic first and then infrastructure, and the other faction is to do infrastructure well and then traffic. This is like the relationship between tourism and urban infrastructure. So who will win in the end is worth observing.
Third, Merlin Chain personally feels that it has a great voice in the current BTC L2 track. After attracting huge traffic and users through waves of growth in the early stage, what measures will be taken in the future to lock liquidity and keep users, or some meaningful ecological projects will appear. Merlin Chain's choice and the final outcome will be what it will be, and whether there is really a demand for BTC L2, these are all worth learning and reflecting from.
3. Depin and AI are the two tracks mentioned most
Different from the current Bitcoin ecosystem, which is almost exclusively played by the Chinese-speaking community. Depin and AI are two tracks that are of concern to both the Chinese-speaking community and overseas. They are also two tracks that are truly meaningful and easier to implement. Depin solves the problem of waste of idle resources and uselessness of small and micro resources, while AI helps solve repetitive and meaningless work and improves efficiency.
Depin has made the invisible and intangible Web3 concrete by combining with real devices, and AI, as a hot industry in the past two years, is naturally combined with blockchain. Depin + AI is more compatible. Depin helps solve AI's computing power, data, storage and other problems, while AI uses Depin devices to make various attempts, such as model training, data labeling, AI Agent, etc.
4. KOL > VC or VC > KOL
During this period, we often hear a voice: the number of KOL rounds of project financing has increased, and even the advantages of KOL rounds are greater than those of VC rounds, with lower valuations and shorter unlocking cycles.
For this, we need to realize that VC is essentially a service industry. They consider how to maximize the returns for the LPs behind them. Therefore, the relationship between KOL and VC is like the relationship between a flexible and free guerrilla and a well-trained army. A good VC will form its own investment logic internally and adjust its investment strategy and corresponding post-investment work according to this logic.
At the same time, a good investment actually values the effect of post-investment work, how to help the project party avoid detours, step on the right outlet, and how to release related benefits, etc. It is definitely not what everyone imagines, just giving some money and shouting orders. These tasks require quite high capabilities of investors.
Therefore, I believe everyone has made a judgment on KOL > VC or VC > KOL.
5. The current market is in a meme stage
As mentioned earlier, I summarized my thoughts on this conference as "Ponzi, Ponzi, Ponzi". It is more out of my personal understanding of the current market status. It is currently in a meme stage, that is, hyping narratives and expectations.
The hottest tracks recently include Bitcoin ecology, Depin, and AI. However, if we look beyond the surface and see the essence, we will find that most of the current projects are still speculating on narratives and speculating on everyone's expectations for the future of the track, but almost none of them are actually implemented. Of course, the same is true for other tracks, and this is not a phenomenon that only exists in mainstream tracks.
Give some simple examples, why is Merlin Chain so popular now, is it because of the wealth effect, or because there is a good ecology on Merlin Chain, or because the narrative of BTC L2 is very popular; how many real devices are connected to the decentralized computing power project in Depin, how much computing power of each device is used, is it really helpful to the real world, will anyone really use this computing power, or is it just talk; how much AI model training has been put into use, how much help has it provided to everyone, is it indispensable, or dispensable...
Of course, these are all normal phenomena, and the ecological development of a track is destined to be a long-term thing, and it is impossible to achieve it in one step. What I want to say here is more that we should realize what stage we are in now, and what we should do at what time, which is what we should think about.
II. Life
1. Indispensable banknotes
While WeChat and Alipay can be used to travel around the world in the mainland, banknotes are still a must-have item for traveling in Hong Kong. Although Octopus can basically solve most of the problems, there are still some buses or restaurants that only accept cash, and Octopus can only be recharged with banknotes.
2. Advanced Lego Builder
Although I am from Guangdong, this is my first time in Hong Kong. The architectural structure of Hong Kong is to maximize the use of idle resources in a small space. The distance between buildings is very short, so short that two families in opposite buildings can pass things by opening the windows; except for some large intersections, there are more small intersections and the distance between them is also short; many designs of overpasses are directly connected between buildings. Things like this made me realize what everyone often said before, that life in Hong Kong is really too depressing, and I always feel like something is pressing on my chest when I walk on the street.
3. Others
Here are some small details I observed while on the road:
Unlike in mainland China, Hong Kong's intersections will have large fonts on the ground indicating the direction of traffic (look left/right), and there are also reminders for the blind at the traffic lights on the sidewalks
The subway stairs are equipped with some convenient elevators (not stand-alone elevators, but hanging on the handrails of the stairs) for people with walking difficulties, which has not been seen in China. Of course, I feel that the utilization rate of this should be very low
On weekends, you can see many Filipino maids sitting on the ground on overpasses and open spaces, chatting and resting
The urban environment is still good, and there is rarely any garbage on the ground, but similarly, I rarely see trash cans on the road.
Three,Personal feelings
It is obvious that there are fewer people attending this conference than last year's Singapore 2049, and the project parties at the venue are basically Chinese projects, with few overseas projects. At the same time, there are fewer people going to various venues to listen to lectures, and everyone has begun to realize that the high-quality information that the conference can obtain is always the least, and only the small bureau is the place to talk about big things.
Coming to the conference this year, I can feel that I am a little different from last year. From a little transparent last year to now knowing something, it also shows that my efforts have not been in vain. I personally feel that I am relatively lucky. Along the way, I have received guidance and teachings from many predecessors.
However, there is still a long way to go, including that after coming to VC, I can deeply understand that investment is an industry that requires a lot of knowledge and flexibility. It is necessary to have a full understanding of the history and current status of the industry, and to plan ahead for future trends and developments. Do what you want to do at the right time. This sentence is simple to say, but it is not easy to do. It can be said that success or failure depends on this one move. What I lack most at present is the unity of knowledge and action. I am not sensitive enough to market changes, and my actions have not been carried out to the end, as well as the control of the secondary market. In these aspects, I still need to practice and reflect more, and find my own strategy as soon as possible. At least now I can clearly know that I am definitely not a short-term material haha.
For this year, I have just started, and there are still many things to do. As graduation is approaching, I must continue to speed up my pace and strive to be pulled into more small games next year. Hh, but I still hope that I can go further and further on the road of Web3.
Jixu
